Statistical Probabilities

DVD, DS9 S6 (Statistical Probabilities)

As close to a stage play as you can get, I could genuinely imagine this performed in theatre thanks to its reliance on character over multiple sets and action. The story does stray outside of the Cargo Bay in which this group of genetically engineered individuals resides for their visit to Dr. Bashir, but much of it happens within those four walls, including a holographic recording of a meeting between Sisko and Dominion representatives Weyoun and Damar (though we don't get to see holo-Sisko, unfortunately, as it would have been fun to see the group commenting on him, too!). Does this mean the Cargo Bays have holoemitters within them, was it something unique to this particular one, was it something installed specifically so the group could watch the proceedings, or was it all connected to that large screen? It's possible that the screen was a holoemitter itself, far beyond 3D TV, able to project a scene into a room. It would be a nice bit of kit to own, and who knows, maybe one day we'll be able to watch this series in fully three dimensions like that? But I'm getting away from the episode, which, as I said, has the feel of a well-written play about it thanks to some excellent dialogue and characterisations.

The key to its success was in the casting, with one of the strongest groups of actors brought together for an episode. If they hadn't worked, the whole thing would have crumbled, but they make it the fascinating study of possibilities that it is, and positively demanded to be brought back, so it's a good job they were. Two of the actors had appeared in previous Treks (Michael Keenan as an alien in 'Sub Rosa' on 'TNG,' as well as King Hrothgar in a 'Voyager' Holodeck episode, 'Heroes and Demons,' while Hilary Shepard-Turner was in 'The Ship,' during the previous season of 'DS9' as a Benzite - I was going to say she had more makeup on in that one, but after watching the episode again, I'm not so sure, Lauren being caked in the stuff!), which may have given them their practice episodes since none of those stories were as good as this one (though their performances may not have made that much difference to the overall quality of the episode), this 'the real thing' where they were able to stretch their acting wings. The other two, Jack and Sarina, were played by actors that had never done Trek before, and it's great to see both new and old faces working together to create an immersive story through the idiosyncrasies and antics of these socially inept geniuses. I would also highlight Dr. Karen Loews as being a really good character as well, despite her short appearance - the way she responds to Jack's spiteful violence is not the shock that she must have felt (and we, the audience, feel), but with considered compassion and calmness, like the best Vulcan would.

Jack's extreme levels of energy and unpredictability give him a flow of forcefulness in his personality, yet he doesn't have the commanding presence that a true leader would have. He bounces from thought to thought and emotion to expression like a… jumping jack! One of the best moments in the episode comes after he's refusing to talk to Bashir at the end, his plans foiled, pride hurt, but before they beam out he asks Julian, if they come up with a way to beat the Dominion will he listen? So he still wants to use his talents to help, and he clearly has respect for the Doctor as he's willing to make the request, and of course Bashir agrees and it all ends amicably. The group came in like a whirlwind, threw people's thoughts and hopes into a flurry with their reading of the Dominion War, then bow out again as the dust settles. It couldn't have been much finer. The wonderfully simple demonstration of all their lofty facts and figures, projections and predictions being derailed by one single person was powerful and has something to say about those who seem to be great thinkers and planners, concerned with the big picture in their own arrogance, but forgetting the smallest thing that can make all the difference. It's a lesson in not trusting too much in man's wisdom, (Bashir even says they're not gods, though Jack, in lofty arrogance, seems to think they're close), and taking the time to consider that we don't have all the answers and have to operate despite that.

Sarina, the ghostly figure that spends most of the episode in the background, almost an extra, and one that doesn't even speak, though for once in Trek, it wasn't to save money, but as an incredibly effective dramatic device, gives us another rush of mastery and meaning when at the last, having spent her time with eyes downcast, she looks up into Bashir's eyes and makes a connection. It's so much more affecting because of her waif-like role throughout the rest of the story, and shows that there's hope for her yet, as would become the launching point of the sequel. Patrick and Lauren are there more for comedy value and to provide added complexity to the group, as they both have obvious problems, but taken as a whole, the four are so distinctive, characterful and engaging to watch that they enhance (not just genetically!), the viewing experience and set a contrast for the still newly revealed Bashir and his enhancements. This is the first episode to really touch on his abilities, though we saw how useful they can be in 'A Time To Stand,' and it gives us another touchpoint of the issue of gene manipulation and modification, something becoming more science fact than fiction now. It shows both the positive, with Bashir able to lead the fantastically useful life that he does, both as Doctor and Starfleet officer, and the dark side of the procedure when things go wrong, ably exampled by Jack's motley group.

It isn't just about the rights and wrongs of such unnatural manipulation (we'd already seen the strongest argument against augmentation at its most extreme, in the Borg, whose constant striving for perfection becomes their sole purpose and creates a horrific self-centredness that isn't even about the self, but is a mindless conglomeration, slaves to a group will, and overseen by a single, malevolent one), it's about the treatment of such people by society. Bashir's colleagues discuss the advantages such people would possess and how they should be barred from competition for such positions as serving in Starfleet. They are feared in some ways, not just because of what they could do, but in the thought that un-enhanced people would have to become like them to compete. It could become a spiral of competitiveness, won by those with the best resources. Bashir's caught in the middle - he feels guilt at being this enhanced man, and even points out Jack's behaviour as being exactly the kind of thing ordinary people fear when he wants to take the law into his own hands and end the War by forcing the Federation to surrender. The Eugenics Wars get a glorious mention, and the parallels are there again, with Khan and his cronies taking over so much of the world - they do things by force if they can't do them by consent. It's interesting to note, that like Khan and his people before them, these are all humans, as if it's a human problem - our own greatest threat is ourselves.

Jack is a worrying character because he isn't afraid to take extreme actions. Cutting Dr. Loews' hand was only one example, he also grabs Sarina's head and threatens to snap her neck if he doesn't get his way quickly enough. I don't think he would do anything so unforgivable as that, but you can't be sure because of his unpredictable nature, when he's doing something out of meanness or when he's just reading the situation and thinking this will be the quickest way to force something to be done. He's the leader because he wants to take action where the others are content to stand, lie, or waddle around. What comes as some of the most amazing moments are how the story is masterfully crafted so that you can believe Starfleet and Sisko would happily give these misfits classified information. From the start we're introduced to them all as they wait for Bashir to meet them, so well designed to show off their personalities. They seem like they have very little hope of contributing to 24th Century life until, by happenstance, they catch Damar's speech and show their intuitive and insightful reading of a person or situation, beautifully turning it into a legendary, or fairytale archetype to express the facts as they see them. This in turn gets them access to the peace talks (how interesting it would have been if they'd really been allowed to attend the meeting!), which gives Starfleet an important tactical advantage when the Dominion were trying to pull the wool over their eyes. All this leads them to go overboard and formulate the shape of future events.

Bashir gets caught up in the excitement over their initial success and really believes in their ability to predict the long term future (just as we hear of the past with the Eugenics War we also hear of a possible future where the Federation surrenders, but one day an uprising eventually overcomes the conquerors, leading to a golden age of a new Federation that lasts for thousands of years - it's certainly appealing if you forget about the lives of the contemporary people who will have to give up their freedom), so much so that he begins to talk like them, faster and almost patronising those that can't keep up, since surely that's the only way people wouldn't agree with their rightness, not the real reason of being more level-headed or opposed to sacrificing their ideals. And that's the biggest issue of the episode: is it right to sacrifice freedom or even a number of lives in order to safeguard a far greater number of lives. It becomes about huge figures and dispassionately giving up, rather than fighting for what you believe in and making a difference, as Captain Kirk would have said - when the odds were against him and the situation was grim that was when Kirk was at his best, enjoying the thrill of trying to stay alive or do what you could with your last breath. Not that that gung-ho nature would necessarily be a tasteful response to the serious issue of billions of lives, but it does start me wondering what Kirk would have done had he survived 'Generations' and been given a ship during the War… The Dominion would have had a tougher time, I'm sure!

Sisko won't ever give up, not when everything he's fought for is on the table, and not for the possible chance to save so many lives, because these are all hypothetical future events, and as the War would prove, there are far too many factors to be able to truly predict the course of the future. The other issue I thought I gleaned from the episode was a possible pro-gambling stance… Okay, so really it was just a more upbeat way to end the episode, (taken even further when Bashir actually gets to send off the group - but did Lauren beam in lying down on the Transporter pad since she beams out that way, or do you get rearranged to a standing position in the process?), but at first Bashir's upsetting Quark's customers at the Dabo table by ranting about the odds being against you and you can't help but lose, and then when he's back at the end he wins! It certainly improves the mood, ending cheerfully and with hope for the future, another reason this ranks highly among so many great episodes of the series and season - though that's two episodes in a row where people have been able to get away with a serious crime due to charges not being pressed. This time Sisko allows them to go free after almost becoming traitors, and last episode Mirror Bareil was freed by Kira!

Also like last episode, Odo's lack of keeping track of people on the station continues. Last time he wasn't keeping tabs on Bareil, now he fails to realise when Weyoun and Damar try to have a secret meeting with potential traitors, though I did love the fact that he's the one to tell them the meeting's off. You'd think there must be Starfleet guards outside of the visiting Dominion reps' quarters, so we don't know how they snuck out of there without being caught (I can just imagine Weyoun and a grumbling Damar struggling through the station's Jefferies Tubes!). Having the pair back in it again is another wonderful aspect of the episode, and quite unexpected as the next taste of their characters after evacuating DS9. Major changes have occurred, with Gul Damar taking his former superior's place as leader of his people, and a new interaction between him and Weyoun. If you think back to the station's occupation, the Vorta thought of and treated him as nothing more than a dog, but now there's a slight degree of mutual respect, essential for such a position. The dynamics have changed, with Weyoun schooling Damar, an uncertain figure, clouded with doubt who has to be strong for Cardassia. He's probably as confused by what's happened as we are! But it makes sense that he would be next in line as you can imagine when Dukat rose to power that only those in his good books would rise with him, and since Damar was the man he most trusted, he would be the one to share most of his confidence and so be in the best position to take over the role with Dukat's descent into madness and capture.

I don't think at this stage Damar knows what he's doing or what he will do, but Cardassians seem genetically predisposed to take control if the opportunity arises, and he's obviously learning a lot very quickly. This is the beginning of the true Damar, the one who would become a hero, though he doesn't know it yet. For such a time as this he was raised up to lead his people, a man that secretly hates the Dominion, but is forced to work with them. Weyoun's modified his own role into being a kind of mentor, knowing it's important to have Damar on his side to make it easier to fight the Federation and Klingons, and no longer baits the Cardassian, but works with him, also, no doubt, believing it will be easier to keep Damar under his thumb than the eminently untrustworthy and egomaniacal Dukat, though he doesn't know the other man's depths. I suppose Damar had come up with the solution to the minefield, and had proved his loyalty to the Dominion (though actually to Cardassia), by killing even the daughter of his friend and leader for being a traitor. His motives were personal, but the Dominion sees its goals in the same direction as his, so these are more concrete reasons for his being chosen to take command than simply being in the right place at the right time!

It's the first time Damar and Kira meet since he killed her friend, Ziyal, but she has to keep herself restrained since these are peace talks, and doesn't attack either physically or verbally. Strangely, she doesn't even seem that angry with Damar - both she and Dukat, the two most affected by Ziyal's death also seem to be very forgiving of Damar for some reason as neither threatens his life or tries to pay him back, or do anything in revenge, as if it was almost inevitable that she would die and Damar just happened to be the instrument of death. I think that's a small blind spot in the series, and Damar should have become public enemy number one for those two, or Kira at least. It's as if the writers had bigger plans for him, so his crime was quickly forgotten. Weyoun's just delighted to be back on the station and able to chat with his favourite Starfleet Captain, though if there is something missing from the episode it would be his and Sisko's interactions. We'd already seen them at it before, or am I thinking of Kira and Odo, or even Dukat, but it would have been a nice extra. As it is, the peace talks do give us something of great interest and enjoyment when we hear Weyoun speak 'Dominionese,' a short segment where we hear the real, untranslated words, since Jack's group are pointing out something about the way he speaks. I also love the moment when Patrick wanders into frame because it's so unexpected, since you assume (and it's cleverly directed to support this belief), you're at the actual meeting rather than a holographic simulation!

That's what gives the episode even more depth: the delight in the little things, whether that's spontaneous ballroom dancing, accurate predictions for the future (Romulans joining the fight; the Cardassian rebellion), the dartboard's return, or seeing the senior staff round at (what looks like), Sisko's for a meal, relaxing before dessert and awaiting Damar's speech. We've seen this happen at various times in the series, one of Sisko's hobbies is that he loves to cook, it helps him relax, so what better way to discuss the issues of the day informally than to invite your colleagues round, though you have to wonder why they're all dressed so formally! A bit like 'In The Cards' when everyone was depressed, this is a low-key dinner party, but not negative, just thoughtful. They must still be feeling a confidence boost after retaking the station, no matter how the War goes. One thing that works really well amidst all Bashir's problems in the episode is his friendship with O'Brien. Some of the best dialogue between them comes in this, with O'Brien thought of as uncomplicated by the savants, and Bashir absolutely milking it. Yet there's also a falling out between them over Bashir and his group's gloomy predictions - the Chief, like Sisko, knows that they have to keep on fighting, regardless of their chances, but importantly, they resolve their differences by the end, Bashir realising he was in the wrong. There's always been a rivalry between the pair, stretching back to when they first became friends, even becoming that way thanks to the rivalry of a single professional versus a working man with a family. Bashir's genius unveiled has only enhanced their friendship, and it's thanks to having friends like O'Brien that he's managed to have a normal, productive life - one enhancement that really was worth it.

*****